Predictive models of the effects of global warming on the adaptability of native beans in Mexico

Resumen

Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models to estimate the impacts of global warming on the adaptability of native common bean populations in Mexico. Design/Methodology/Approach: Presence records for Phaseolus vulgaris var. aborigineus (Pva) and Phaseolus vulgaris var. mexicanus (Pvm) were compiled across Mexico. Global warming scenarios were established using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) across four temporal projections. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed based on 19 bioclimatic variables and 12 monthly temperature and precipitation averages. Ecological niche suitability was assessed using the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt, Ver. 4.3.1k). Results: Principal Component 1 (PC1) accounted for 68% of the variance in Pva and 86% in Pvm, while PC2 explained 30% in Pva and 12% in Pvm. Adaptability was primarily influenced by temperature fluctuations and cumulative rainfall during March and September. An overall increase in ecological niche suitability was projected for both species, attributed to global warming and the resulting decline in interspecific competition from other tree and shrub species adversely affected by climatic changes. Limitations/Implications: The study focused exclusively on two plant species. Broader assessments incorporating additional species are necessary to fully understand the ecological interactions within chaparral, forest, and grassland ecosystems. Findings/Conclusions: The models generated demonstrated high predictive accuracy, indicating an expansion in the potential adaptability range of the two native common bean varieties in response to global warming.